Japans inevitable demise?
Here’s a controversial post, but not deliberately so.
Once an economic powerhouse, could Japan become a footnote in history?
Its population of 127 million is shrinking by a million a year, and by 2050 will be down to 90 million – an unheard-of decline for a rich country in peacetime. Many Japanese are delighted: crammed on to their small island, they think more space will give them a better quality of life. They are living in a fool’s paradise: there won’t be nearly enough people in work to pay for their retirement, and within two decades the economy will face collapse.
The only way Japan will survive is by facing up to its “taboos”.
One is feminism, which this patriarchal society has steadfastly refused to embrace. Although women can and do work, no allowance is made for their family commitments. As a result, the national childbearing average is 1.3, well below the level needed to keep the population stable.
Another no-no is immigration: at present only two million foreigners live in Japan, mostly South Koreans and a few Chinese. Perhaps the Japanese would rather use robots to do unskilled jobs than accommodate people from different cultures?
They now face a difficult choice: to change the way they think, or slide into penury and obscurity.
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Originally posted 2008-12-17 20:44:22.
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Comments
By shaun sayers on June 3rd, 2009 at 6:53 pm
The Japanese have a pretty good record over the last half century of changing the way they think, but this has largely been driven by events that leave them little option to do much else. Let's see how they react to this. My bet is that they do
By Marc in Chicago on July 22nd, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Their population may be decreasing, but it may not be a bad sign. Considering global over-population, climate change and scarcity of natural resources all countries should all be trying to limit population growth.
Also, in my opinion, Japan has one of the most advanced civilizations, and may collectively be capable of more complex though than most or all other western countries. So, they should surely be able to save their birth rate, culture and population… unless the entire human species is wiped out from global warming or something similar.
By damien @ learning japanese fast on October 26th, 2009 at 1:38 am
Thanks for the interesting post on the Japanese birth rate. I look forward to reading more from you in the future.