The promise that presidents always break

Although President Bush has still got some time left to go in office, I can already predict two things with confidence.

First, his successor will be elected on a promise to lead America to energy independence.

Second, that promise won’t be kept.

Every major contender for the presidency has vowed to liberate the USA from the cruel grip of imported oil, and it’s easy to see why: the pledge suggests a steely determination to protect our security, combat global warming and boost domestic industries. As a policy, though, it’s a non-starter. Back in the Seventies, when only a third of our oil was imported, President Nixon championed energy independence and got nowhere. What chance of success does that policy have today when they buy in 60% of their oil?

If Americans really want to reduce their reliance on foreign oil, then it would be better to impose a carbon tax: that would curb consumption while also funding the development of green technologies. But it would be a tough sell. Much easier just to peddle the mirage of energy independence.

However, remember that when it comes to climate change it is taken as read that since the West caused global warming, the West must solve it, by cutting its emissions and paying for technological improvements elsewhere. Developing countries must be allowed to grow as the like. Well, that’s all very fair and liberal, but it ignores one key point. The real threat to the planet is not the US, whose policies are susceptible to international pressure, and popular opinion - but China, which is burning so much dirty coal, so inefficiently, that by 2030 it will have emitted more CO; in 25 years than Europe and America have in the past 100.

And that’s an optimistic projection, based on figures that are almost certainly underestimated by a regime which ignores environmental protests and stifles activists. Until China starts to engage with public opinion on carbon emissions, its growth spells doom for the planet.

That is the truth that must be confronted.